Changing Dynamics for Nepal’s Foreign Policy: A Realist Approach
by Binaya Raj
Being a landlocked country is a misfortune. Moreover, to be surrounded by India and China, a tragedy. However, this tragedy faced by Nepal can be minimized with a proper mindset towards its China and India relations.
China and India, growing economic giants, will always look forward to expand and strengthen their foreign relationships, even exploit. China’s increasing presence in East Asia and the South China Sea, increasing aid to African countries, and its growth as the next economic giant, has challenged the existing balance of power in the world and forced European powers, the US, India, and others to rethink their foreign policies. The Belt and Road Initiative of China is an example of China’s effort to expand itself beyond the immediate border countries and expand its foreign presence. This initiative will not only help China to decrease the pressure of US Trade but also serve as a medium to grow and diversify its economy, which in turn will force the US to rethink trade deals, and ultimately force the US to reconsider its long-perceived notion of leader in world order. India will also take measures to exploit resources for economic growth as expanding foreign presence is a must for any growing economy.
Nepal, standing between India and China, can benefit from the expanding foreign policy of neighbouring countries, but a cautious and realist approach, based on precedent and economic benefit, should be at the core of the new policy. The resources should be reasonably utilized, and in the meantime, Nepal should strive to diversify trade allocation with both India and China. New trade routes should be initiated in the north to increase the trade input from China. The extended relations with China with a transit trade treaty and nine other pacts as of March 2016 should be implemented as soon as possible. Although it is true that the difficult mountainous terrain in the northern frontier would never be as accessible as the southern plain frontier, a new possibility has unfolded with the trade treaty. This treaty was signed when India imposed an unofficial economic blockade on Nepal in 2015. The blockade created a shortage of fuel and the ensuing humanitarian crisis hit Nepal hard as the country was absorbing the shock of a 7.8 earthquake in the same year. The only other option, the northern border to China, was difficult for trade given that transport through the mountains is demanding.
Given that the treaty was signed during the blockade, the bargaining power against the Indian hegemon is within the grasp of Nepalese politicians. Initiating these new projects with China will also send a powerful message: the trade will not be limited to the south. Obviously, India will be antagonized by the presence of China inside Nepal since India has always tried to maintain itself as the most foreign aid supporting country. In 2014 to 2015, China outpaced India as Nepal’s biggest foreign investor with around $1.6 billion funds in hydropower projects. Recognizing this fact this fall was Indian Prime Minister Modi,who visited Nepal in August 2014 with around $1 billion to promote “reconstruction of the earthquake-shaken country.” An observable prioritization and a contest is beneath the surface.
Furthermore, Nepal should also differentiate foreign policy from the anti-India nationalism that drives populist politics. Pitting citizens against India and China, as Nepal tried to do during the reign of Mahendra, should no longer be an option. Attempts to build relationships with other distant powers will not help Nepal; Nepal has very few to gain in terms of support from other nations, which was proven during the economic blockade imposed by India. In this regard, the ruling government can focus on broadening the relationship between India and China, rather than distancing towards the upcoming election’s populist agendas. With trade relationship expansion, resource allocation, receiving foreign aid, Nepal should follow a realist policy and not by a party’s political agendas. Tying foreign policy goals with a political agenda will be fatal as proven by the failure of Mahakali and Koshi Barrage treaty with India. The matters of diplomacy and trade should not be utilized as the means of politicizing the mass.
As a landlocked country surrounded by India and China, Nepal has few foreign policy options. However, as the two countries grow more in power and start to extend their relationship to other nations, Nepal should maintain an open approach to both nations and properly utilize the benefits to build these relationships. If Nepal maintains this approach towards its relationship with India and China, the prospect of economic growth is bright.
